Effects of Agricultural Production on Carbon Emissions in Indonesia

Abstract

Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are one of the consequences of activities that have an impact on the environment, including in the agricultural sector. As a country with an agrarian economy, Indonesia faces a major challenge in balancing agricultural production growth and commitment to climate change mitigation. This study aims to investigate the relationship between agricultural production and carbon emissions in Indonesia using 30-year time series data, from 1993 to 2022. The variables analyzed include agricultural land area, fertilizer use, fuel consumption, and agricultural production volume, while carbon dioxide emissions are used as the dependent variable. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression with classical assumption tests to ensure the validity of the model. The estimation results show that agricultural land area and agricultural production have a significant effect on carbon emissions. In particular, it indicates that land expansion tends not to increase carbon emissions, possibly due to lower input intensity extensification-based management. In contrast, agricultural production reflects the impact of intensification and the use of high-carbon inputs in the production system. These findings provide important implications for the formulation of sustainable agricultural policies in Indonesia, emphasizing the need for a transition to an efficient and environmentally friendly low-carbon production system.