Prediction Dengue Fever Cases Semarang City Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue fever is often in the spotlight in Indonesia every year. Data from the Ministry of Health shows that until the 17th week of 2024, there were 88,593 cases of dengue fever with 621 deaths in Indonesia. Semarang City is still an endemic dengue case, so a comprehensive control of the incidence of cases in the community is needed through the calculation of case predictions. To predict the number of dengue fever cases per month per sub-district and compare with the real cases that occurred during January - August in 2024. We used the exponential smoothing method in this study. Data source: The data used is dengue fever case data taken from the dengue fever information system report (Tunggal Dara) for the period 2016-2023. The variables included include the number of cases per month, the population, and sub districts, while the data set obtained is 1616 data. The prediction of DHF cases per month for 2024 per sub-district area was produced, with an average MAE value of 1.55, indicating that the average difference between the predicted value and the observed number of DHF patients is relatively small. The average value of alpha in smoothing coefficients is 0.286, meaning that the influence of the latest data on the predicted value has a moderate weight. Tugu sub-district had an RMSE value of 1.101, meaning that the predicted values were close to the real cases and during the 8 months of observation, the results were correct. The prediction of cases per month per sub-district is used for prevention efforts against the occurrence of DHF cases, the hope is not to exceed the predictions produced. If it can be below the prediction results, it means that there is a success of promotive and preventive efforts made by all parties.